Ticking Time Bombs and the Climate-Housing Crisis
Worsening climate impacts (and faltering insurance markets) may now be accelerating a climate squeeze in real estate.
In yesterday’s When We Are podcast, The Last Disaster, I mentioned that the number of homes destroyed in the LA fires was meaningful even in the nation’s second largest city.
The effects have indeed been immediate, as this piece LA fire victims are suddenly thrust into an unforgiving rental housing market describes:
While thousands of families search for stability after losing their homes in the past week’s historic Los Angeles fires, many are suddenly confronting another crisis: the region’s long-standing shortage of affordable rental housing.
Now, that shortage has become much worse…
“There's not much available for rent, and what is available is just disappearing immediately, and there's a lot of price gouging,” [one fire-displaced resident] said. “It's so hard to believe that I'm fighting tooth and nail to get this house that I don't want.”
As victims scramble for housing — worsening the housing plight of poorer residents in the process — insurance is having a reckoning of its own. Watchdog groups have already warned that California’s insurer of last resort, the FAIR plan (which covers otherwise uninsurable properties), is a “ticking time bomb.”
This collision of housing shortage and climate crisis is, of course, being seen everywhere now. Exposed communities all around the world are facing a reckoning with risk that will change them forever.
Five years ago, I thought the deflation of the brittleness bubble, the economic collapse of the most vulnerable places and the subsequent flight from brittleness traps were all 10-20 years in the future. Now I’m not so sure. I suspect they have already begun.
If so, then we’re already in a climate squeeze, where more people will be seeking safer places with more secure futures, and where demand will quickly outstrip supply. As I wrote in The Bottleneck and You, there’s plenty of evidence that people are already willing to play more for safety.
There is already a premium on properties in these places. People are already willing to pay more to live outside of flood zones, in more temperate climates, in places where you don’t feel an itchy sense of looming disaster whenever you wake up to a hot stormy day or smoke in the air. In a crisis that will last the rest of our lives, peace of mind is the ultimate amenity.
It’s not just vibes, though. Safer places are worth more in concrete terms. Avoided damage is money in the bank. The prices people are willing to pay for safety will likely continue to rise. There’s an argument to be made that we massively undervalue safe places, still, which means that — at least for most of the people reading this — it’s not too late to ruggedize your life.
They won’t stay accessible forever. A confluence of forces will act like a bottleneck as awareness spreads and demand grows. The climate squeeze is coming.
(If you’re concerned about the growth of a climate-housing crisis, I’d encourage you to read the rest of the essay.)
I’ll have a lot more to say about all this in the next weeks.
A bunch of you have asked when my next personal ruggedization classes will be. I’ll be more formally announcing this later this week, but my next live Ruggedize Your Life: The Basics class (an in-depth 101 in planning a personal climate strategy) will be held on Thursday, January 30th, from 11:00 am - 1:00 pm Pacific Time.
If you already know you want to take the class, here is the link to save your spot:
Ruggedize Your Life: The Basics
Thursday, January 30th, from 11:00 am - 1:00 pm Pacific Time.
More soon.
Alex
- I have a new piece in Mother Jones, Trump Won’t Confront the Climate Crisis. He’ll Feast Off It. (I don’t write the headlines…)
- Stay connected on social: Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Bluesky
- Check out my books: Worldchanging and Carbon Zero
- View my TED Global talks on sustainability and cities.
- I’ve spoken with the media hundreds of times. Recently, I was featured in a NY Times Magazine piece, "This Isn't the California I Married." My writing was the jumping-off point for an episode of This American Life titled Unprepared for What Has Already Happened, as well as the podcasts Without; The Big Story; Everybody In the Pool and 99% Invisible’s Not Built for This series.
- I have a new podcast, When We Are, available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast and other podcast platforms around the world. Please check it out, subscribe, rate and review.